Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
